STOCK INDICES SPI Bullish unless below 4895. After making strong gains on Monday to new uptrend highs of 4928, the SPI spent the rest of the week trading sideways, despite making a new intraday high of 4931 on Thursday. A close above that intraday high would be a bullish signal, indicating a continuation of the uptrend. Based on the vertical distance of the correction back to 4676 on January 7, the next upside target is at 4958 with the correction distance to the January 31 lows of 4688 indicating a target is 4974.

Cat Davey

A line of support formed last week from Tuesday’s low at 4895. A move below the hammer lows of February 11 at 4840 would be a bearish signal with next support at the Fibonacci 62% retracement of the gains since January 31b(4688 – 4931) at 4784.

RES: 4931 4958 4974
SUP: 4895 4840 4784

S&P 500
Bullish unless below 1328.

Since August 2010, the S&P has made relentless gains with the largest pause just a 4% pullback and the longest correction occurring over just three weeks. That situation will eventually be brought into balance, but there is nothing to suggest in recent price action that we are on the verge of that. Next resistance is at the lows of May 19, 2008 at 1379 followed by the round number of 1400.

Any pullback this week should find support at or before 1328 followed by the lows of February 10 at 1308. Next support is then based on the uptrendline drawn from January 31 (at 1262), which is currently sitting around 1300.

RES: 1379 1400
SUP: 1328 1308 1300

COMMODITIES

Gold spot
Bullish unless below 1373.

Gold made solid gains last week, topping out on Friday at US$1392. Once again the $1400 range is in sight, although there is strong resistance dating back to late December at 1402. A move above that range and next resistance is at the highs of January 3 at $1423, followed by the all-time highs (on the spot chart) of 1431. A break above 1431 and we are back in blue-sky territory.

Given the speed of last week’s gains, it would not be unexpected for gold to retrace at least some of that climb this week. First support is at Thursday’s lows of $1373 followed by the highs of February 8 at 1368 then the Fibonacci 62% retracement of the gains since January 28 (1307 – 1392) at 1340.

RES: 1400-02 1423 1431
SUP: 1373 1368 1340

Crude Oil
Bearish unless above 88.11.

Crude made a weak attempt at a recovery late last week. Friday’s price action recorded a high of US$87.88 but a close at 86.20, which also happened to be below the open of 86.40. That bearish signal could see crude retest last week’s lows this week – ie at 83.85 or test the lows of November 23 at 81.41 followed by the lows of September 23 at 78.05.

A close above the high of February 8 at 88.11 would be a bullish sign. First resistance would then be at the high of that day at 89.54 then the highs of February 4 at 91.67 with very stiff resistance at the uptrend highs of 93.43.

RES: 88.11 89.54 91.67
SUP: 83.85 81.41 78.05